JOBS

Harsh Reality for Record Number of Computer Science Grads: Software Employment Has Peaked

Tech companies and startups overhired, overspent, and overpromised — so what they’re doing now that the money isn’t coming as easily should be no surprise. Since 2022, the industry has laid off over 528K workers, echoing the downturns of the Dotcom Bubble and the Great Recession. Even with an improving economy and record stock valuations, jobs aren’t returning. This time, things might really be different.

Peak software: ADP reports that the US employs fewer software developers than pre-pandemic — with a 17% drop since 2018. Job opportunities in traditionally stable tech fields are also drying up as software companies’ growth slows (and companies rethink the economics of their businesses).

• In the last 18 months, job growth for software publishers, including software developers, has stalled — with a 30% year-over-year decline in full-time job postings by tech firms, according to student job site Handshake.

• California, the hub of America’s tech scene, now hosts fewer tech jobs than before the pandemic, says data journalist Joey Politano — erasing a surge that added hundreds of thousands of roles.

End of Days?

Computer and tech-oriented programs are one of the only degrees that have seen an increase in enrollment in recent years — no surprise, considering STEM degrees rank among the highest-paid college majors. However, the sluggish job market for tech employees raises concerns about graduates finding quality positions.

• From 2011-2021, computer science graduates from top research universities increased 12x, with a 40% rise in computer and information science majors over the past five years (WSJ).

• CompTIA’s Tim Herbert says that “job seekers need to reset their expectations,” including compensation and employer preferences, to find jobs in the industry.

Forward-looking: While the BLS predicts double-digit growth in computer and IT jobs over the next few years, billionaire Mark Cuban warned long ago that AI could reduce demand for tech professionals over the long run. Pace Capital’s Chris Paik took it a step further in his new essay “The End of Software” — saying that “majoring in computer science today will be like majoring in journalism in the late 90’s.” These warnings might make students rethink their degree — or reconsider college entirely.

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LARGECAP RECAP

🗳️ Interactive Brokers to Launch Prediction Market, Allowing Users to Bet On Environmental and Economic Events

Soon, doubling your money — or losing it all — could be as simple as answering a “yes or no” question. Interactive Brokers ($IBKR) is set to launch ForecastEx, a predictions market on its platform, where investors can speculate on economic and environmental events. The market’s approval will help expand a fast-growing industry that has risen in popularity (and controversy) during the pandemic.

• ForecastEx will allow economic and environmental hawks to wager on various economic and climate indicators.

• IBKR says initial markets will include predictions on the Fed’s target interest rate, US consumer sentiment, and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

How does it work? For instance, in the target interest rate market, users could bet on specific ranges like 4.5%-4.75% or 5.25%-5.5%. If you thought one outcome was likely, you could bet “yes” if you expect that outcome to occur and “no” if you think it won’t. However, the cost of each bet will depend on how likely other users think it will happen. Correct predictions could double your money, but incorrect bets could result in a total loss of capital — making this an “all or nothing” market.

Here’s why GM is backing this company in the next gold rush: Demand for lithium (essential for EVs, phones, and energy storage) is projected to grow 20x by 2040. EnergyX’s latest tech can extract 300% more lithium than traditional methods. That’s why GM led a $50M investment round. Join them by backing EnergyX *

Markets & Economy

Walgreens ($WBA) to close “significant” number of stores: The drug store is following in the footsteps of competitor CVS ($CVS) and Rite Aid, announcing plans to shutter unprofitable locations to stabilize its struggling business. The stock fell over 20% yesterday. [Read]

Feeling sick? COVID is surging again: It’s not just you; everybody is getting sick — and it might be a COVID comeback. Cases of the virus are “growing or likely growing” in 39 states, just in time for the Independence Day holiday. [Read]

S&P 500 sees record concentration: Despite a recent decline in shares of Nvidia ($NVDA), the S&P 500 is the most concentrated that it has ever been, according to the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index — with a substantial portion of the market tied up in just a handful of stocks. [Read]

Business & Wealth

Elon Musk’s SpaceX secures $210B valuation: Just hours after winning a nearly $1B contract to help NASA deorbit the International Space Station, Musk’s space startup announced it would sell existing shares at a $210B valuation. [Read]

Uber ($UBER) to pilot car-less challenge: The rideshare company wants to highlight the “high costs of personal car ownership” and its impact on our health by offering $1K to 175 North American participants who agree to leave their car behind for five weeks. [Read]

Fintech bank partner Evolve hacked: Weeks after the Fed warned the bank to boost its risk management and security, Evolve Bank and Trust was hacked — with social security numbers, identity documents, and other personal information leaked. Partners include Mercury, Dave ($DAVE), and Affirm ($AFRM). [Read]

*Thanks to our sponsors for keeping the newsletter free.

DIGIT OF THE DAY

22% of Public EV Chargers In The US Are Non-Functional

What do American electric vehicle (EV) owners and iPhone users have in common? They both hope their chargers work. A recent Harvard study reveals that public EV charging stations across the country have an average reliability score of 78%. This means one in five EV chargers don’t work — making EV chargers less reliable than traditional gas pumps.

• Despite over 64K public EV charging stations nationwide, S&P analyst Ian McIlravey believes the current infrastructure is insufficient to support a drastic rise in EV numbers.

• S&P Global Mobility forecasts that the US will likely need ~1.2M Level 2 chargers by 2027 to adequately support the anticipated growth in EV adoption.

Power struggles: Even though sales are increasing, EV adoption in the US remains relatively low, with only 30% of Americans seriously considering purchasing an EV, according to Pew Research. This hesitation stems from concerns over inadequate charging infrastructure, battery performance issues, and higher upfront costs associated with EVs compared to traditional gasoline vehicles — further contributing to the slowdown of EV adoption.