# 729 - 💊 Eli Lilly’s latest miracle drug

Good morning. Ever wondered what’s inside a $2.8K Dior bag? Turns out, it’s about $57 worth of labor and a whole lot of markup. Italian police probed high fashion suppliers, revealing low-budget production practices — undocumented foreign workers sleeping on-site and safety devices removed to speed up production. Seems the “Made in Italy” label might come with an asterisk these days.

TRENDS

America’s Western Clothing Craze Has Fueled Denim’s Stylish Comeback

If you were an ‘80s or ‘90s kid who rocked denim, you knew it wasn’t just a piece of clothing — it was a lifestyle. While hand-me-downs used to be frowned upon in the 2000s (thanks, Regina George), denim is back in modern wardrobes as a vintage statement.

Threads of change: Since the pandemic, a resurgence in Western styles has translated into increased interest and spending on denim, which became a preferred choice in American households as lifestyles leaned more towards comfort and versatility. Pop culture and high-profile endorsements from artists like Taylor Swift and Beyoncé are also fueling excitement for denim.

  • Google searches for denim clothing were up 35% last year — with Abercrombie & Fitch ($ANF), dubbed the “Nvidia of jeans,” seeing a 157% rise in searches so far this year.

  • In a Coresight survey, price was the leading factor for denim purchases, with 54.7% of consumers spending between $0 and $110 on denim in the last year.

Retro Trends, Modern Profits

Top designers like Gucci, Valentino, and Versace are incorporating denim and wider pant styles into their collections, boosting demand for denim-centric stocks like Old Navy ($GPS), Ralph Lauren ($RL), and Boot Barn ($BOOT), which are up 169%, 36%, and 50%, respectively, over the past year. And analysts think they might continue their run…

  • TD Cowen’s Oliver Chen believes denim is set to be a strong performer in the retail sector, stating, “We see the recent momentum in the denim category as sustainable in the near to medium term.”

  • The analyst is also bullish on Ralph Lauren and Levi Strauss ($LEVI), highlighting Ralph Lauren’s record-high financial metrics and Levi’s promising direct-to-consumer strategy.

Timeless but out of style: The concept of “quiet luxury” is gaining traction in the denim industry, with brands like Levi’s and Gap focusing on timeless designs and clean finishes. However, this isn’t enough for denim to regain the market share it held before the pandemic due to the rise of athleisure. Coresight’s Sunny Zheng told Rivet, “Denim will be a staple, everyone needs a pair of jeans. But consumers are looking for new ideas… something different.”

PARTNERED WITH STANSBERRY RESEARCH

This Indicator Called Nvidia at The Start of 2023. What’s It Saying About Your Stocks?

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Marc Chaikin is the man who created the Chaikin Money Flow indicator… which appears in every Bloomberg terminal in the world — where banks and hedge funds have paid up to $5K each month to access his system and analysis.

  • Chaikin’s Power Gauge flashed “buy” on Tesla before it climbed 335%, Moderna before it climbed 300%, and Riot Blockchain before it climbed 10,090%.

  • It also found NVIDIA at the start of 2023… before its massive bull run. Is the system flashing bullish or bearish on your favorite stocks?

LARGECAP RECAP

💊 Eli Lilly Looks To Extend Its Weightloss-Fueled 700% Stock Gain With New Alzheimer’s Drug

Eli Lilly’s new Alzheimer’s drug is a “forget-me-not” in medical innovation. On Tuesday, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Eli Lilly’s ($LLY) Alzheimer’s drug, donanemab, heralding a potential turning point in treating the deadly neurodegenerative disease. Marketed as Kisunla, this drug is the most effective Alzheimer’s therapy to date — reducing inflammation-causing amyloid plaques by up to 84% on average.

  • Eli Lilly reports that donanemab’s results are highly meaningful — showing a 35% lower risk of disease progression over 18 months compared to a placebo.

  • Kisunla is only the second drug, behind Eisai and Biogen’s ($BIIB) lecanemab, to show convincing evidence of slowing Alzheimer’s progression.

The elephant in the room: Eli Lilly’s stock has soared 700% in the past five years, but maintaining that rally means tackling challenges in pharmaland. President Biden recently criticized pharma companies for charging “unconscionably high prices” for weight loss and diabetes drugs like Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro. While companies defend their pricing with patient affordability programs and discounts to pharmacy benefit managers, the administration has threatened action if prices aren’t substantially reduced.

🏠 Wall Street Analysts Slam The Door on Homebuilders Over Housing Challenges

The housing market’s hot streak is cooling as Wall Street turns a cold shoulder. Homebuilder giants Lennar ($LEN) and D.R. Horton ($DHI) are facing analyst downgrades. This follows Lennar’s stumble last month when it fell short of earnings expectations. Analysts are now the least bullish on $LEN since 2017, a stark contrast to its stellar 2023 performance.

  • Citigroup ($C) blamed softness in housing starts, sales, and prices — while Raymond James ($RJF) analysts expressed concerns with Lennar’s exposure to the softening Florida market.

  • On Tuesday, $LEN declined 1.6% following the rating cuts, with $DHI stumbling 1.3% behind.

Party’s over? Homebuilder shares were the life of the party in 2023, with the S&P Composite 1500 Homebuilding Index returning 81%. However, with rates at generational highs, the house party seems to be coming to an end. Analysts suggest the homebuilding sector is “long overdue for a material valuation re-rating,” (BBG) which could provide the industry with a serious reality check.

JOE’S MARKET PULSE

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Markets & Economy

AI start-ups defy tech slump: Investors poured $27B into US AI start-ups from April to June, almost half of all start-up funding in that period. The AI gravy train has become the strongest counterpoint to the broader 2022 financing downturn. [Read]

Global tax deal faces roadblocks: A landmark OECD tax agreement stalls due to US Senate opposition. Originally designed to curb multinational tax avoidance, a failure could trigger a tax war as countries race to offer favorable treatment. [Read]

Student loan repayment struggles persist: Nearly half of the 40M federal student loan borrowers are not making payments. Borrowers owe $1.6T, hindered by confusing repayment options and a court-enforced pause. [Read]

Business & Wealth

Trump presidency sparks bond selloff: The increasing likelihood of a second Trump administration has sparked a selloff in US government bonds, with Wall Street betting that Trump’s policies could drive up deficits and Treasury yields. [Read]

Proton launches Google Docs alternative: The privacy-focused company is introducing a document editor similar to Google Docs, featuring enhanced encryption and data protection. [Read]

CDK Global recovers from cyberattack: After a two-week outage, the software provider reports that “substantially all” of its systems are back online — allowing 15K North American car dealerships to return to regular service. [Read]

*Thanks to our sponsors for keeping the newsletter free.

CHART

DIGIT OF THE DAY

Americans Embrace Legal Horse Betting After Record $320M Handle At Kentucky Derby

Kentucky is already famous for bourbon and basketball, but it’s looking to add a third B to its arsenal — betting. This year’s Triple Crown races — the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes — saw record participation from bettors, thanks to broadcast deals, track partnerships, and the recent legalization of sports betting in Kentucky.

  • Churchill Downs ($CHDN), the operator of the Kentucky Derby, reported a record $320M (+11% YoY) in total handle for the race — more than $92M of this came from bets placed through its official betting app, TwinSpires.

  • FanDuel ($FLUT) noted that a record 800K customers bet on the Triple Crown through its Racing app and TVG horse betting app — a 15% increase from last year.

Horse power: Besides sports betting giants setting records, racehorse investing is also growing by record numbers, fueled by the popularity of fractional investing platforms. This year’s Preakness winner, Seize the Grey, was fractionally owned by over 2K investors on MyRacehorse. These investors bought shares in the winning thoroughbred for under $100 and received a cut of the race’s $2M pot.

EXTRA JOE

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